Comments on: Thoughts: Blood Bowl 2

By: princepawn

princepawn — Sun, 18 Dec 2022 14:09:29 +0000

I liked Chaos League quite a bit and have not had a chance to try Blood Bowl. I would be interested in something more realtime… perhaps something like DOTA meets Blood Bowl… any suggestions?

By: Marvin

Marvin — Sat, 02 Apr 2022 08:06:00 +0000

To Aaron, the reason what you said is “totally counter-intuitive” is because it’s not true!
For some reason, you changed the author’s scenario from failure 1/3 of the time to success 1/3 of the time. I’ll stick with the author’s failure 1/3 of the time scenario. The probability of success with a reroll is 4/6 + (1/6)*(4/6) + (1/6)*(4/6)=32/36, so the chance of failure is 1-SuccessChance=1-(32/36)=4/36=1/9, which is exactly what the author said. The way that probability logic reads is this: four sixths of the time the author will succeed on the first die roll, and so initial failure occurs with a roll of either 1 or 2; when the author rolls only a 2, which happens one-sixth of the time, a reroll will still yeild success four sixths of that time, and when the author rolls only a 1, which happens the final one-sixth of the time ["final", because 4/6+1/6+1/6=6/6], a reroll will still yield success four sixths of that time. Reworded, four sixths of the time that an initially failing 1 or 2 is rolled, success will still result after the second roll. It’s like a weighted average; success happens 100% of the time on a 4–6 roll, but still also happens 66.6% of the time on an initial 2 roll, and 66.6.% of the time on an initial 1 roll. Even easier is the other scenario you brought up where both dice are rolled together and either die can be a 3–6 to result in success. In such a scenario, the only failure results will be a roll with both dice are 1, both dice are 2, die 1 is 1 & die 2 is 2, or die 1 is 2 & die 2 is 1; the other 32 cominations will all be successes. Guess what? That’s also a 32/36 success rate, and therefore a failure rate of 4/36=1/9. So it makes no difference how you think about it, sequential or simultaneously.
For the record, your 55.6% success rate is the correct probability for your alternative scenario of throwing 2 dice simultaneously (20 succeeds out of 36 possible outcomes=55.6% success) where you only succeed with a roll of a 5 or 6. It just doesn’t do anything to prove the distinction you’re claiming between sequential and simultaneous since for your other scenario, sequentially throwing the dice, probability is 1/3 + (2/3)*1/3=0.556, for which the probability logic reads as this: one third of the time you’ll succeed right off the bat, but even for the other two thirds of the time that you get inital failure, you’ll still succeed one-third of that time. So even here it doesn’t matter whether you roll the dice sequentially or simultaneously. You gave the reason yourself, “probability is discreet and acts brand new for every single die roll.” So each die has no knowledge, nor is it affected by, what the other die does. That is to say that the dice don’t KNOW whether they’re being rolled sequentially or simultaneously, and a roll of a single 5 or single 6 on either of the two six-sided dice will net you a successful result.

By: Aaron Verdery

Aaron Verdery — Sun, 07 Nov 2021 08:06:44 +0000

Hi there, just want to nit pick something you stated when discussing the effect that skills have on dice rolls, specifically re-rolls. You say “he’d be able to automatically reroll a single failed pickup roll per turn, meaning he’d have to roll a 1 or 2 on two dice at the same time to fail the roll outright and which reduces the chance of failure to one in nine” This is actually incorrect. There is a statistical difference between making 2 sequential rolls (i.e. a failed roll and a re-roll) and rolling 2 dice simultaneously where you only need one die to have the desired result. As an example, lets say you absolutely need to knockdown an opposing player, but you can only get a one die block, so you need a Defender Down or Defender Stumbles, which is 1 in 3. You fail the roll because Nuffle hates you at the moment, so you spend your re-roll, and, since probability is discreet and acts brand new for every single die roll, you now have a 1 in 3 chance again. However, let’s say you can bring over a support player to make it a 2-die Block. In this case, you only care that one die of the two has the desired result, ignoring the result of the second die, giving you 20 succeeds out of a possible 36 outcomes, for a 55.6% success rate. I hope this makes sense, and don’t feel bad, it’s totally counter-intuitive…

By: Adam

Adam — Sun, 31 May 2020 06:34:46 +0000

The problem with BB is that the rules were designed for a game which was played every so often on a board with a few mates. An experienced team might have played say 20 games. Now when you are facing teams with 100s of games, a bash play style is so utterly dominant to make anything other than chaos or maybe necromantic teams (undead with werewolves) sub optimal. Against opponents who can pack the line of scrimmage with claw-mighty blow-piling on players you expect to lose 1-2 players on the first turn every time you defend. Being pitch cleared is normal, and elf teams with five rostered players are common. Until that’s fixed in the rules, league blood bowl is spirit crushing.

By: Einhander

Einhander — Thu, 28 May 2020 11:44:33 +0000

hello

I stumbled across your blog when searching for Space Hulk probability numbers on Google. I think the blog is really great and you cover very interesting games, many of which meet my own tastes.

I just wanted to recommend two great games: Talisman Digital Edition and Darkest Dungeon as great games which i love which you do not seem to have covered, but i suspect would be right up your alley.

Thanks